Only Ups/Only Downs: Extreme Payout Directional Bets

The Only Ups/Only Downs (sometimes referred to as Stay Up/Stay Down) contract is one of the most challenging and highest-paying directional Digital Options. It is a strict test of sustained, pure momentum.

Strict Win Condition:

• Unlike standard Rise/Fall which only checks price at expiry
• This contract requires price to move in predicted direction on every single tick
• From entry point to exit point, no exceptions

Two Extreme Contract Types:

• Only Ups: Every subsequent tick price must be strictly higher than previous tick price
• Only Downs: Every subsequent tick price must be strictly lower than previous tick price

Key Difference from Standard Contracts:

• Perfect Path Required: Every tick must continue the direction
• No Flat Ticks: Equal price to previous tick = immediate loss
• Extreme Payouts: 1000%+ reflecting near-impossible win condition

The perfect tick sequence requirement creates extreme trading difficulty:

For Only Ups Contracts:

• Every tick must be higher than previous tick
• Single flat or down tick = immediate loss
• Requires perfect sustained upward momentum

For Only Downs Contracts:

• Every tick must be lower than previous tick
• Single flat or up tick = immediate loss
• Requires perfect sustained downward momentum

Strategic Implication: This contract type rewards traders who can identify the rare moments of perfect, sustained momentum without any hesitation or consolidation.

The win condition is path-dependent and exceptionally restrictive.

Duration:

• Typically offered for very short, fixed durations (e.g., 5 ticks)
• Longer durations exponentially decrease probability

Only Ups Win Condition:

• Sequence must show: Tick 1 > Tick 0, Tick 2 > Tick 1, Tick 3 > Tick 2, continuing until expiry
• Every tick must be progressively higher
• Perfect upward staircase pattern required

Only Downs Win Condition:

• Sequence must show: Tick 1 < Tick 0, Tick 2 < Tick 1, Tick 3 < Tick 2, continuing until expiry
• Every tick must be progressively lower
• Perfect downward staircase pattern required

Loss Condition:

• Trade is immediate loss the moment any tick is equal to or opposite the previous tick
• For Only Ups: Loss if any tick is equal to or lower than previous
• For Only Downs: Loss if any tick is equal to or higher than previous

Statistical Difficulty:

• For 5-tick sequence, probability is extremely low
• Each tick must continue direction (roughly 50% each)
• Combined probability approximately 1/32 or 3.1% for perfect 5-tick run

Extreme Payouts:

• Due to tiny probability, payouts are highest in Digital Options
• Often reaching 1000%+ or more
• Reflects statistical reality of perfect runs

Market Noise Impact:

• High frequency of minor fluctuations
• Flat ticks common even in trending markets
• Perfect runs extremely rare in normal conditions

Duration Strategy:

• 5 Ticks Standard: Most common duration
• Ultra-Short: Maximize probability of perfect run
• No Long Durations: Each additional tick exponentially reduces success chance

Highest Payouts in Digital Options:

• 1000%+ Returns: Among highest available
• Statistical Justification: Reflects tiny probability of perfect run
• Risk/Reward: Extreme reward for extreme difficulty

Probability Comparison:

• 5-Tick Perfect Run: Approximately 3% probability
• 10-Tick Perfect Run: Less than 0.1% probability
• Each Tick: Adds exponential difficulty

Strategic Reality:

• Treat as statistical longshot
• Use smallest possible stakes
• Perfect for rare extreme momentum moments
• Not suitable for regular trading

Risk Characteristics:

• Limited Risk: Loss capped at initial Stake amount
• Extreme Loss Rate: Approximately 97% loss rate (3% win probability)
• Immediate Termination: Single opposing or flat tick ends contract

Risk Management Considerations:

• Smallest Stakes: Use absolute minimum stake amounts
• Treat as Lottery: Capital you're prepared to lose completely
• High Frequency: Many attempts needed to realize wins

Extreme Rewards (Lowest Probability):

• 1000%+ Payout: Highest in all Digital Options
• 3% Win Rate: Only 1 success per 30+ trades
• Break-Even: Requires winning 1 in 10 trades at 1000% payout
• Suitable For: Extreme momentum breakout moments only

Strategic Justification:

• Extreme payout necessary to justify tiny probability
• Provides necessary reward for statistical longshot
• Single win can offset many losses
• Perfect for rare extreme momentum scenarios

Statistical Reality:

• Only Ups/Downs is statistical longshot
• Perfect runs extremely rare in normal conditions
• Market noise defeats most attempts
• Success requires perfect timing and conditions

Major Breakout Trading:

• Initial Ticks: Target first ticks of major, high-volume breakout
• Consolidation Exit: Following long period of consolidation
• Price Inertia: Strong momentum carries price quickly and cleanly
• Clean Run: Minimal noise during initial breakout phase

Market Conditions:

• Major breakouts after extended consolidation
• High-volume momentum surges
• Clear technical breakout patterns
• News-driven explosive moves

Success Factors:

• Requires perfect timing at breakout start
• Benefits from volume analysis
• Suitable for breakout specialists only

Boom Index Strategy (Only Ups):

• Designed Spikes: Boom Indices designed for periodic sharp price surges
• Initial Clean Ticks: First few ticks often clean, rapid, unidirectional
• Boom Identification: Target moment surge begins
• Clean Portion: Bet on initial "clean" portion of spike

Crash Index Strategy (Only Downs):

• Designed Crashes: Crash Indices designed for periodic sharp price drops
• Initial Clean Ticks: First few ticks often clean, rapid, unidirectional
• Crash Identification: Target moment crash begins
• Clean Portion: Bet on initial "clean" portion of drop

Success Factors:

• Requires understanding of Synthetic Index mechanics
• Benefits from pattern recognition
• Suitable for Boom/Crash specialists

Strategy Overview: Boom Indices are designed to have periodic, sharp price surges. The moment a surge begins, the first few ticks are often clean, rapid, and unidirectional.

Execution Steps:

1. Monitor Boom Index (like Boom 1000) for surge start
2. Identify beginning of new, sharp upward movement
3. Place Only Ups contract for 5 ticks
4. Execute immediately at surge start
5. Bet on initial clean portion of spike

Why It Works:

• Boom Indices engineered for sudden spikes
• Initial ticks typically perfect upward sequence
• Before consolidation or pullback occurs
• 5-tick window captures clean run

Step 1: Select Contract Type

• Navigate to Trade → Options → Digital Options
• In contract type dropdown, select "Ups/Downs" or "Highs/Lows"
• Then select "Only Ups/Only Downs"

Step 2: Set Duration and Stake

• Duration usually fixed (e.g., 5 ticks)
• Set your stake (use smallest amount for testing)
• No other parameters required

Step 3: Review Extreme Payout

• Platform displays extremely high potential payout
• Note payout often exceeds 1000%
• Understand this reflects tiny win probability

Step 4: Execute Contract

• Click "Buy Only Ups" (if predicting perfect upward run)
• OR
• Click "Buy Only Downs" (if predicting perfect downward run)

Step 5: Monitor Perfect Sequence

• Watch each tick in real-time
• Contract terminates immediately on opposing or flat tick
• Success only if all ticks continue direction

Pre-Trade Identification:

• Wait for extreme momentum signal
• Identify Boom/Crash surge beginning
• Confirm strong directional catalyst
• Prepare for immediate execution

During Trade:

• Monitor each tick progression
• Watch for immediate termination
• Track perfect sequence continuation

Post-Trade Analysis:

• Record at which tick sequence failed
• Identify if failure was flat tick or opposing tick
• Analyze frequency of perfect runs
• Refine timing and entry precision

Common Mistake: Trading Only Ups/Downs during normal market conditions

Why It Happens:

• Attracted to extreme payouts
• Not understanding perfect run requirement
• Underestimating market noise impact

How to Avoid:

• Market must be in extreme momentum phase (breakout or spike)
• Normal trading volatility includes too many micro-reversals or flat ticks
• Wait for exceptional conditions only
• Accept that tradeable moments are rare

Common Mistake: Confusing with Rise/Fall where flat ticks may be tolerated

Why It Happens:

• Not understanding equal price loss condition
• Assuming only opposing ticks cause loss
• Comparing to less restrictive contracts

How to Avoid:

• Single flat tick (price equal to previous) = immediate loss
• Do not confuse with Rise/Fall contract
• Understand perfect progression requirement
• Accept zero tolerance for non-directional ticks

Key Differences:

• Win Difficulty: Perfect sequence vs. final check vs. single touch
• Path Monitoring: Every tick vs. none vs. continuous
• Probability: Lowest vs. moderate vs. variable

Objective: Experience the extreme difficulty of perfect tick sequences.

Step-by-Step Challenge:

1. Switch to Demo Account and select the Volatility 10 Index

2. Execute 10 Consecutive Trades:

   • Place 10 Only Ups trades for 5 ticks each
   • Use smallest stake amount ($1-$5)
   • Record outcome of each trade

3. Track Failure Analysis:

   • Record how many times sequence failed
   • Identify failure type for each:
     • Tick moving against direction (down tick in Only Ups)
     • Tick staying equal to previous price (flat tick)
   • Note at which tick position failures occurred

4. Calculate Statistics:

   • Count successful perfect runs vs. failures
   • Calculate actual win rate vs. theoretical 3%
   • Observe payout on any successful trades

Reflection Questions:

• How often did single flat tick ruin the trade?
• What was your actual win rate vs. theoretical probability?
• Were failures more common from opposing or flat ticks?
• Is extreme payout justified by difficulty?

Variation 1: Boom/Crash Testing

• Switch to Boom 1000 Index
• Wait for surge start signal
• Test Only Ups during initial spike
• Track success rate vs. Volatility Index

Variation 2: Failure Pattern Analysis

• Track 50 attempts on Volatility 75
• Record exact tick where failure occurred
• Identify most common failure point
• Analyze if flat or opposing ticks more common

Variation 3: Duration Impact

• If available, compare 3-tick vs. 5-tick vs. 7-tick durations
• Calculate win rate for each
• Observe exponential probability decrease
• Understand duration impact on success