Digit Matches/Differs: Predicting an Exact Final Digit

Digit Matches/Differs is the purest, highest-payout form of Deriv's Digit Options. Like Over/Under, the outcome is determined solely by the numerical value of the last digit of the Exit Spot (the final price tick).

Two Extreme Contract Types:

• Digit Matches: You predict the final digit will be exactly equal to your chosen Target Digit
• Digit Differs: You predict the final digit will be any number other than your chosen Target Digit

Key Difference from Over/Under:

• Exact Targeting: Predicts single digit instead of range
• Extreme Payouts: 900%+ for Matches, less than 10% for Differs
• Statistical Extremes: 10% vs. 90% probability

The extreme statistical nature creates unique trading opportunities:

For Digit Matches Contracts:

• Win only when exact digit appears
• 1/10 (10%) probability = Very high payout
• Requires statistical proof of digit bias

For Digit Differs Contracts:

• Win when any other digit appears
• 9/10 (90%) probability = Very low payout
• Ideal for capital compounding

Strategic Implication: This contract type separates gamblers from statistical traders. Matches requires proven anomalies, Differs offers ultra-safe compounding.

You select a single Target Digit (0 through 9) before the trade execution.

Digit Matches Win Condition:

• Final digit of Exit Spot must be the exact number you selected
• Example: If you choose Target 3 (Matches), you win only if final digit is 3
• 1 winning digit out of 10 possible = 10% probability

Digit Differs Win Condition:

• Final digit of Exit Spot must be any of the nine other numbers not selected
• Example: If you choose Target 3 (Differs), you win if final digit is 0, 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, or 9
• 9 winning digits out of 10 possible = 90% probability

Probability and Payout:

• Matches: 1/10 (10%) probability = Very high payout (often 900%+)
• Differs: 9/10 (90%) probability = Very low payout (usually less than 10% net profit)

Statistical Probability:

• 10 possible outcomes (0-9), each theoretically 10% chance
• Payout inversely proportional to probability
• Platform automatically calculates extreme payouts

Payout Examples:

• Digit Matches: 1 winning digit = 10% probability = 900%+ payout
• Digit Differs: 9 winning digits = 90% probability = less than 10% payout

Statistical Leverage:

• Matches requires winning 1 out of 10 trades to break even
• Differs wins 9 out of 10 trades but with tiny profits
• Extreme risk/reward creates unique strategic opportunities

Duration Strategy:

• Very Short Durations: Capture momentary anomalies
• Tick-Based: Precise timing for statistical analysis
• Statistical Bias: Shorter durations may show temporary digit frequency changes

Matches Payouts (High Risk, High Reward):

• 10% Probability: Only 1 winning digit
• 900%+ Payout: Highest available in Digital Options
• Break-Even: Must win 1 out of 10 trades
• Suitable For: Statistical anomaly trading

Differs Payouts (Low Risk, Low Reward):

• 90% Probability: 9 winning digits
• Less than 10% Payout: Lowest available in Digital Options
• Break-Even: Can afford 9 losses per 10 trades
• Suitable For: Capital compounding

Strategic Balance:

• Matches for proven statistical edges
• Differs for consistent capital growth
• Combined strategies for portfolio diversification

Risk Characteristics:

• Limited Risk: Loss strictly limited to initial Stake amount
• Extreme Variance: Matches has 90% loss rate, Differs has 10% loss rate
• Statistical Risk: Requires understanding of probability distribution

Risk Management Considerations:

• Matches: High-risk requires smallest possible stakes
• Differs: Low-risk allows larger stakes for meaningful profits
• Portfolio: Balance both for risk-adjusted returns

Matches Rewards (Extreme High Risk):

• 900%+ Payout: Highest in Digital Options
• 10% Win Rate: Only 1 success per 10 trades
• Break-Even: Requires 11.1% win rate (1 in 9)
• Suitable For: Proven statistical anomalies only

Differs Rewards (Ultra-Safe):

• Less than 10% Payout: Lowest in Digital Options
• 90% Win Rate: 9 successes per 10 trades
• Break-Even: Can lose 90% of trades
• Suitable For: Systematic capital compounding

Statistical Reality:

• Matches is gambling without proven data
• Differs provides steady, predictable returns
• Combined strategies offer balanced approach

Statistical Anomaly Detection:

• Data Analysis Required: Only use when data reveals digit bias
• Specific Conditions: Extremely low volume or high volatility
• Temporary Bias: Digit frequency significantly exceeds 10% average
• Example: Digit 0 or 5 appearing 15-20% of the time

Market Conditions:

• Assets showing proven digit distribution anomalies
• Short-term market inefficiencies
• Specific time periods with documented patterns

Success Factors:

• Requires rigorous statistical analysis
• Must have verifiable data supporting digit bias
• Use smallest possible stakes until proven
• Suitable for quantitative traders only

Systematic Growth Strategy:

• High Probability: 90%+ win rate for consistent returns
• Least Common Digit: Target digit appearing less than 10% of time
• Compounding: Small profits accumulate over many trades
• Risk Management: Larger stakes acceptable due to high probability

Market Conditions:

• Stable market conditions
• Consistent tick generation
• Assets with reliable digit distribution

Success Factors:

• Requires patience and discipline
• Benefits from consistent execution
• Suitable for conservative capital growth
• Ideal for systematic trading strategies

Strategy Overview: Use historical tick analysis to find the least frequently occurring final digit (e.g., digit '1' appears only 8% of the time). Select this digit as your Target Digit and execute a Digit Differs contract.

Execution Steps:

1. Analyze historical tick data for asset
2. Identify least frequent digit (e.g., 8% occurrence)
3. Select this digit as Target Digit
4. Execute Digit Differs contract
5. Bet on 92% chance final digit will be any other number

Why It Works:

• Statistical edge: 92% vs. theoretical 90%
• Consistent execution provides reliable returns
• Small profits compound over many trades
• Low-risk approach for steady growth

Step 1: Select Contract Type

• Navigate to Trade → Options → Digital Options
• In contract type dropdown, select "Digits"
• Then select "Matches/Differs"

Step 2: Define the Target Digit

• Select your Target Digit (0 through 9)
• Choose from dropdown or input field
• Platform shows probability for both contract types

Step 3: Set Duration and Stake

• Choose duration (e.g., 5 Ticks)
• Enter your stake amount
• Platform calculates extreme payouts

Step 4: Review Extreme Payouts

• Platform shows fixed payouts:
  • Matches: Very high payout (900%+)
  • Differs: Very low payout (less than 10%)
• Understand the statistical leverage

Step 5: Execute Contract

• Click "Buy Matches" (if you expect exact digit)
• OR
• Click "Buy Differs" (if you expect any other digit)

Pre-Trade Analysis:

• Use historical tick analysis tools
• Identify digit frequency patterns
• Calculate actual vs. theoretical probability
• Document statistical edge

During Trade:

• Monitor tick generation patterns
• Track actual digit distribution
• Adjust strategy based on real-time data

Post-Trade Review:

• Record outcomes for statistical analysis
• Compare actual vs. expected win rates
• Optimize target digit selection
• Refine strategy based on results

Common Mistake: Trading Digit Matches without statistical proof

Why It Happens:

• Attracted to 900%+ payouts
• Believing in "lucky numbers"
• Ignoring statistical reality

How to Avoid:

• Never use Matches without verifiable data showing digit bias above 10%
• Require statistical proof before trading
• Use smallest possible stakes for testing
• Accept that Matches is gambling without proven data

Common Mistake: Using small stakes on Differs contracts

Why It Happens:

• Not understanding low payout percentages
• Expecting meaningful profits from small stakes
• Ignoring the math of less than 10% returns

How to Avoid:

• Ensure stake is large enough that small profit percentage translates into worthwhile profit amount
• Calculate minimum stake for meaningful returns
• Use Differs for capital compounding, not quick profits
• Accept slow, steady growth model

Key Differences:

• Target Method: Exact digit vs. range vs. direction
• Payout Extremes: Matches/Differs offers most extreme payouts
• Risk Profile: Most extreme variance in all Digital Options

Objective: Experience the extreme statistical leverage of Matches vs. Differs.

Step-by-Step Challenge:

1. Switch to Demo Account and select the Volatility 10 Index

2. Select Target Digit:

   • Choose Target Digit 5
   • Note the payout percentage for Matches (very high, 900%+)
   • Note the payout percentage for Differs (very low, less than 10%)

3. Place Both Contracts:

   • Place Matches trade with $10 stake and 5-tick duration
   • Place Differs trade with $10 stake and same 5-tick duration

4. Observe Outcomes:

   • If final digit is 5: Matches wins $90+, Differs loses $10
   • If final digit is anything else: Matches loses $10, Differs wins less than $1

Reflection: This exemplifies the massive statistical leverage and extreme risk/reward dynamics.

Variation 1: Statistical Analysis

• Track digit distribution over 100 trades
• Calculate actual frequency for each digit
• Identify any statistical anomalies
• Test Matches on proven anomalies only

Variation 2: Compounding Strategy

• Use Differs exclusively for 50 trades
• Reinvest profits each time
• Calculate compound growth rate
• Compare to other contract types

Variation 3: Portfolio Approach

• Combine Matches (1% of capital) with Differs (99% of capital)
• Track overall portfolio performance
• Understand risk-adjusted returns
• Optimize capital allocation