Digit Over/Under: Trading the Final Tick

Digit Options are a specialized type of Digital Option where the trade outcome is determined only by the numerical value of the last digit of the Exit Spot (the final price tick). The overall price movement (up, down, or sideways) is completely irrelevant.

Two Contract Types:

• Digit Over: You win if the final digit is strictly greater than the chosen Barrier
• Digit Under: You win if the final digit is strictly less than the chosen Barrier

Key Difference from Directional Contracts:

• Digit-Focused: Uses only the final digit (0-9) instead of price direction
• Direction-Independent: Ignores whether price goes up, down, or sideways
• Statistical-Based: Relies on probability distribution of digits

The statistical nature creates unique trading opportunities:

For Digit Over Contracts:

• Win when final digit is higher than your chosen barrier
• Payout based on number of winning digits
• Independent of market direction

For Digit Under Contracts:

• Win when final digit is lower than your chosen barrier
• Payout based on number of winning digits
• Independent of market direction

Strategic Implication: This contract type rewards traders who can identify patterns in digit distribution and understand statistical probability, rather than predicting market direction.

You choose a number (0 through 9) that acts as the Barrier. The final digit of the Exit Spot is then compared to this chosen Barrier.

Digit Over Win Condition:

• Final digit is strictly greater than the chosen Barrier
• Example: If you choose Barrier 5 (Over), you win if final digit is 6, 7, 8, or 9
• 4 winning digits out of 10 possible

Digit Under Win Condition:

• Final digit is strictly less than the chosen Barrier
• Example: If you choose Barrier 5 (Under), you win if final digit is 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4
• 5 winning digits out of 10 possible

Loss Condition:

• If final digit equals the chosen Barrier, trade is a loss for both Over and Under contracts

Statistical Probability:

• Each digit (0-9) theoretically has 10% chance of appearing
• Payout is calculated based on number of winning digits
• Platform automatically calculates probability and payout

Payout Examples:

• Digit Over 0: 9 winning digits (1-9) = 90% probability = Low payout
• Digit Over 5: 4 winning digits (6-9) = 40% probability = Medium payout
• Digit Over 8: 1 winning digit (9) = 10% probability = High payout

Equal Loss Impact:

• When final digit equals barrier, both Over and Under lose
• This creates slight payout premium for adjacent digits
• Pure mathematical probability with built-in house edge

Digit Over Success

Final digit greater than barrier. Example: Barrier 5 → Win on 6,7,8,9 (4 winning digits = 40% probability). Lower barriers offer higher win probability but lower payouts.

Digit Under Success

Final digit less than barrier. Example: Barrier 5 → Win on 0,1,2,3,4 (5 winning digits = 50% probability). Higher barriers offer higher win probability but lower payouts.

Understanding Digit Over/Under Outcomes:

Digit Over:

• Success: Final digit strictly greater than barrier = Payout based on winning digits
• Failure: Final digit equals or is less than barrier = Loss of stake
• Strategy: Lower barriers offer higher win probability but lower payouts

Digit Under:

• Success: Final digit strictly less than barrier = Payout based on winning digits
• Failure: Final digit equals or is greater than barrier = Loss of stake
• Strategy: Higher barriers offer higher win probability but lower payouts

Duration Strategy:

• Short Durations: Maintain consistent digit distribution
• Tick-Based: Use tick counts for precise timing
• Statistical Consistency: Longer durations may show digit distribution patterns

High Probability (Low Payout):

• Digit Over 0: 9 winning digits = 90% probability
• Digit Under 9: 9 winning digits = 90% probability
• Suitable for capital preservation and slow compounding

Medium Probability (Medium Payout):

• Digit Over 5: 4 winning digits = 40% probability
• Digit Under 5: 5 winning digits = 50% probability
• Balanced risk/reward ratio

Low Probability (High Payout):

• Digit Over 8: 1 winning digit = 10% probability
• Digit Under 1: 1 winning digit = 10% probability
• High-risk, high-reward strategies

Risk Characteristics:

• Limited Risk: Maximum loss is strictly limited to your initial Stake amount
• Statistical Risk: Based on mathematical probability, not market direction
• Equal Loss Risk: When final digit equals barrier, both contracts lose

Risk Management Considerations:

• Digit distribution may not be perfectly random
• Short-term anomalies can skew probability
• Psychological biases can affect digit patterns

High Probability Rewards:

• Digit Over 0/Under 9: 90% probability, low payout
• Suitable for capital preservation
• Slow but steady compounding

Medium Probability Rewards:

• Digit Over 5/Under 5: 40-50% probability, medium payout
• Balanced risk/reward ratio
• Suitable for regular trading

Low Probability Rewards:

• Digit Over 8/Under 1: 10% probability, high payout
• High-risk, high-reward strategies
• Suitable for aggressive trading

Benford's Law Applications:

• Non-Random Distribution: When markets exhibit non-random digit distribution
• Pattern Recognition: Identifying deviations from expected 10% probability
• Mathematical Edge: Using statistical analysis for trading advantage

Market Conditions:

• Synthetic Indices with predictable tick patterns
• Assets with consistent digit distribution
• Markets showing statistical anomalies

Success Factors:

• Requires statistical analysis skills
• Benefits from pattern recognition
• Suitable for quantitative traders

High Probability Strategies:

• Digit Over 0: 90% probability for slow capital growth
• Digit Under 9: 90% probability for capital preservation
• Compounding: Use high-probability trades for steady returns

Market Conditions:

• Stable market conditions
• Consistent digit distribution
• Low-volatility periods

Success Factors:

• Requires patience and discipline
• Benefits from consistent execution
• Suitable for conservative traders

Strategy Overview: Observe a market (like Volatility 10 Index) in tight consolidation where most final digits are 3, 4, or 5. A sudden, brief surge in volatility can cause the final digit to jump to the extreme high end (8 or 9) before reverting.

Execution Steps:

1. Identify market in tight consolidation
2. Observe digit distribution (typically 3, 4, 5)
3. Wait for volatility surge signal
4. Place Digit Over 7 contract for very short duration (1-5 Ticks)
5. Bet on brief spike in final digit

Why It Works:

• Consolidation creates pent-up energy
• Volatility surges often produce extreme digits
• Short duration captures the spike
• High payout compensates for low probability

Step 1: Select Contract Type

• Navigate to Trade → Options → Digital Options
• In contract type dropdown, select "Digits"
• Then select "Over/Under"

Step 2: Define the Barrier

• Select your Barrier digit (0 through 9)
• Choose from dropdown or input field
• Platform shows winning digits for your choice

Step 3: Set Duration and Stake

• Choose duration (e.g., 5 Ticks or 1 Minute)
• Enter your stake amount
• Platform calculates probability and payout

Step 4: Review Payout

• Platform shows fixed payout based on statistical probability
• Example: Over 5 = 4/10 chance = 40% probability
• Review risk/reward ratio

Step 5: Execute Contract

• Click "Buy Over" (if you expect final digit to be higher)
• OR
• Click "Buy Under" (if you expect final digit to be lower)

Real-Time Analysis:

• Monitor digit distribution patterns
• Track probability vs. actual outcomes
• Identify statistical anomalies

Strategy Adjustment:

• Adjust barrier based on observed patterns
• Change duration based on market conditions
• Modify stake size based on probability

Performance Tracking:

• Record win/loss ratios
• Analyze payout vs. probability
• Optimize strategy based on results

Common Mistake: Forgetting that if final digit equals your Barrier, it is a loss

Why It Happens:

• Not understanding the equal loss condition
• Assuming pure mathematical probability
• Ignoring the built-in house edge

How to Avoid:

• Always remember equal digits result in loss
• Factor equal loss into probability calculations
• Understand why adjacent digits have slightly higher payouts

Common Mistake: Assuming all 10 digits have exactly equal 10% chance

Why It Happens:

• Believing in perfect randomness
• Not testing historical data
• Ignoring market-specific patterns

How to Avoid:

• Check historical tick data for specific assets
• Test digit distribution before trading
• Account for psychological biases and anomalies
• Use statistical analysis tools

Key Differences:

• Prediction Method: Over/Under vs. exact match vs. direction
• Independence: Digit contracts ignore price direction
• Statistical Focus: Digit contracts rely on probability distribution

Objective: Experience the relationship between probability, payout, and trading success.

Step-by-Step Challenge:

1. Switch to Demo Account and select the Crash 500 Index

2. High Probability Test:

   • Place Digit Over 0 trade (90% probability, low payout)
   • Use small stake amount
   • Observe how frequently this trade wins

3. Low Probability Test:

   • Place Digit Over 8 trade (10% probability, high payout)
   • Use same stake amount
   • Observe how infrequently this trade wins despite high reward

4. Reflection Questions:

   • How does the relationship between probability, payout, and stake determine overall trading success?
   • Which strategy would you prefer for consistent returns?
   • How can you use probability analysis to improve your trading?

Variation 1: Distribution Analysis

• Track digit distribution over 100 trades
• Identify any patterns or anomalies
• Compare actual vs. theoretical probability

Variation 2: Duration Impact

• Test different durations (1 tick vs. 5 ticks)
• Observe if digit distribution changes
• Find optimal duration for your strategy

Variation 3: Barrier Optimization

• Test all barrier digits (0-9)
• Record win rates and payouts
• Identify most profitable barriers